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White House Washington DC BIO 2011 Convention © Pieter DroppertOne of the sessions at BIO 2011 in Washington DC that I hope to make if my travel plans permit, is the Monday afternoon session on “What is the Future for Innovative Medicines in Our Industry’s Pipeline?”

The June issue of Nature Reviews “Drug Discovery” attempts to answer this question by looking back at what happened to the R&D projects involving 28,000 compounds investigated since 1990.

Fabio Pammolli and colleagues analyzed the Pharmaceutical Industry Database (PhID) maintained by the IMT (Institutions, Markets, Technologies) in Lucca, Italy.

In their Drug Discovery article entitled “The productivity crisis in pharmaceutical R&D,” they reach a number of conclusions, some of which are:

  • Output of new drugs has not matched investment in R&D
  • Therapeutic innovation has become more challenging and complex
  • Decline in R&D productivity is associated with investments in R&D areas where risk of failure is high
  • There is no evidence of any R&D productivity differences between United States and Europe.

The authors analyzed R&D investment decisions by looking at the potential pay-off for an R&D project (probability of market launch multiplied by potential market value) and the expected Probability of Success (POS) in reaching the market based on the average success rate of compounds with the same pathology.

What I found interesting in their paper was the fact that many of the therapeutic areas with the highest percentage of R&D projects had the lowest average POS e.g. cancer drugs (antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents) had the lowest POS (1.8%) and the highest share of total projects (21.77% from 1990 to 1999, increasing to 29.77% from 2000-2007).  The 1.8% average probability of success can be contrasted with 4.19% for musculoskeletal system drugs and 6.64% for dermatologicals.

The authors argue that the data shows a shift towards therapeutic markets with a lower POS. What are the reasons for this? Possible explanations include:

  • Orphan drug development incentives: legislation that provides incentives to undertake drug development for rare diseases (orphan drugs) has led to a shift towards these targets, which by definition have smaller markets.
  • Development of drugs for chronic diseases e.g. Alzheimer’s disease: Collectively these have a POS of 6.88% compared to the acute disease average POS of 8.77%.  85.80% of R&D projects from 2000-2007 were within this category.
  • More research targeting lethal diseases such as cancer and infectious disease, which have an average POS of 5.54% compared to non-lethal diseases, average POS of 9.72%.

The authors conclude from this research that:

“R&D investments tend to focus on new therapeutic targets, which are characterized by high uncertainty and difficulty, but lower post-launch competition.”

This article offers some interesting retrospective analysis, but I am concerned that they may have underestimated the market potential for many rare disease areas where market size cannot properly be quantified.

As Novartis showed with imatinib (Gleevec®/Glivec®), it is possible to build a blockbuster out of a very small, rare market (only 4,500 – 5,000 new diagnoses of CML per year in the United States), creating a new market segment and moving the leukemia from a certain death sentence to a chronic disease that can be easily managed with targeted therapy.

The focus of many biotechnology and biopharmaceutical companies on orphan drug development has been shown to be a valid strategy by Genzyme and others.  Proving you can bring a product to market and obtain some revenue is likely to stimulate more company investment rather than less.

In the run up to BIO 2011 several companies have highlighted their orphan drug strategy, including Oklahoma City based Selexys Pharmaceuticals who announced news about SelG1 in Sickle Cell Disease and Lamellar Biomedical from Glasgow with LMS-611 for Cystic Fibrosis.

I am looking forward to learning more at BIO on how industry experts view the future for innovation within the sector.  Also whether the orphan drug strategy that many biotech companies are now following will pay off given the lower probability of success in rare indications.

All in all, the 2011 BIO international convention is set to be an interesting and informative meeting.  Business cards, comfortable shoes and camera/video – I’m ready!

ResearchBlogging.orgPammolli, F., Magazzini, L., & Riccaboni, M. (2011). The productivity crisis in pharmaceutical R&D Nature Reviews Drug Discovery, 10 (6), 428-438 DOI: 10.1038/nrd3405

One of the “Super Sessions” at the forthcoming 2011 Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) international convention is a presentation of the highlights of Ernst & Young’s 25th Annual Biotechnology Industry Report.

The 97 page report, available online, offers a useful summary of metrics around financing, deals and sector performance.

As the report notes, one of the key issues that biotech companies continue to face is access to funding in order to sustain innovation.  Many biotechnology executives I spoke to at the recent American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting in Chicago confirmed how difficult access to capital remained.

The E&Y report confirms this anecdotal evidence. In their report they note that the 80/20 rule that we are all familiar with applied to biotechnology funding in 2010, with 20% of US companies obtaining 82.6% of the capital!

Given this ratio, it’s not hard to see why so many small biotech companies have struggled for funds.  However, what would have been more interesting to learn about is what were the characteristics of the 20% that led them to successfully obtain more than 80% of the funding? In other words what are the learnings for emerging biotech companies seeking capital?

The report also notes that biotech’s share of available VC funding fell from 18% in 2009 to 12.2% in 2010, as VC’s invested in other market segments such as media and technology.  One only has to look at the recent market interest in LinkedIn to see that investing in web 2.0 companies is back in fashion again, although with the subsequent share price drop it might be considered to be a little akin to Tulip mania.

Another key funding point that the E&Y report picks up on, is that many VC’s now invest in tranches with milestone or contingency based payments.  The result of this “risk sharing” is a lowering of available working capital.  The consequence for biotech companies is that less upfront R&D investments can be made. Instead they may be forced to go after fewer indications and not pursue all available opportunities.

Ernst & Young also interviewed several biotech CEOs about how they planned to sustain innovation, and two strategies emerged:

  • Prove that what you are doing benefits patient outcome
  • Do more with less i.e. improve efficiency

They are not mutually exclusive, and as the report points out, these are the challenges faced by all life science companies.

It will be interesting to see at BIO 2011 how industry executives view the current state of the biotechnology industry and how innovation can be sustained.

BIO-2011-Interational-Convention-Washington-DC

I am excited to be attending, for the first time, the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) international convention that takes place in Washington DC in just over a week’s time from Monday June 27 to Thursday, June 30th.

This meeting has something for everyone interested in the biotechnology industry whether it be deal making, partnering, licensing, drug discovery or personalized medicine. There are 16 specialized tracks where industry experts provide insight and best practices.

In addition, there are numerous networking and social events plus an exhibit hall that showcases the world’s biotech regions and how they are promoting innovation.

At meetings where there are parallel sessions, I apply “the law of two feet” (thanks to Podcamp for this) that says if you are not getting what you want from the session, it’s OK to walk out and go to another one.

My top 10 sessions at BIO reflect my personal interests in innovation, science and new product development:

Tuesday June 28

  • How will we afford Personalized Medicines?
  • The Biomarkers Consortium: Facilitating the Development and Qualification of Biological Markers
  • Personalized Oncology: The emergence of Personalized Medicine Strategies in Oncology Clinical Development and Deal Making
  • Navigating the New Law on Licensing Biosimilars

Wednesday June 29

  • Lessons from a Mature Public-Private Partnership. The Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative
  • Emerging Markets. The Future of Growth for Biologics?
  • The Role of Imaging Biomarkers in Early Phase CNS Drug Development
  • The Promise of MicroRNA-based Therapeutics in Cancer

Thursday Jun 30

  • After the Fall. Venture Capital and the Biotech Funding Landscape
  • Regulatory Issues for Tissue Engineered Products

If you have plans to be at BIO 2011 do say hello after one of the sessions or receptions. You can reach me at the meeting via twitter (@3NT).  See you in DC!

Follow 3NT on Twitter

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The patient advocacy session at the recent 16th Congress of the European Hematology Association in London focused on adherence to cancer treatments, and was filled to capacity, with the many attendees having to watch it from an overflow area.

Dr David Marin, Reader in Onco-Haematology at Imperial College, London presented research published last year in the Journal of Clinical Oncology that dramatically demonstrated how adherence to chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) therapy is the critical factor for achieving molecular responses.

In a study of 87 CML patients taking imatinib (Glivec®/Gleevec®) for a median period of 91 days, Dr Marin showed that no major molecular response (MMR) was observed when adherence was ≤ 80% and no complete molecular responses (CMR) were observed when adherence was ≤ 90%.  The graphical figure that he presented from his paper, dramatically shows how missing only a few doses of drug can have a major impact on outcome.

 

Although the work by Marin and colleagues at the Hammersmith Hospital was undertaken with CML patients taking imatinib, the paper notes that adherence problems

“may apply equally to patients receiving second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors.”

Imatinib is the only TKI approved in the UK, thus that’s the only one available for studies there to date.

What made this data so compelling was the study rationale that used an electronic pill container, the medical event monitoring system (MEMS™) from the Aardex Group. This product contains a microchip that records the date and time it is opened.

Dr Marin’s study showed that “lack of adherence is underestimated by conventional methods.”  Self-reporting of adherence and pill counts are inaccurate compared to electronic data capture using MEMS (study subjects were unaware of the micro-chip in the pill bottle).

When psychologists at the Hammersmith Hospital subsequently interviewed patients who missed doses of drug, they found intentional and non-intentional adherence reasons.

A few excepts of  patient quotes from Dr Marin’s presentation:

Intentional non-adherence:

“Oh I can’t be bothered tonight, it’s not going to kill me [to miss a dose]”

“I thought there was no way I was going [on holiday] and being tired.”

Unintentional non-adherence:

“And sometimes you just forget”

“[the pharmacy] had no medication for me, so I went for nearly a week with no medication.”

Other speakers in the excellent patient advocacy session chaired by Jana Pelouchová (European Cancer Patient Coalition, Czech Republic) and Jan Geissler (CML Advocates Network, Germany) included Giora Sharf (Israeli CML patient’s Organization and CML Advocates Network, Israel) and Professor Rudolf Schoberberger (Medical University of Vienna, Austria).

Professor Schoberberger focused on the impact of drug packaging on compliance, particularly in elderly patients, and presented compelling research on how “child-proof” equals “age-proof.”  Sally Church in her video blog from EHA also discusses the patient advocacy session and how pharma/biotech companies could improve drug packaging.

The issue of adherence is a personal choice that every patient taking a chronic therapy makes. However, as Sally notes on Pharma Strategy Blog more patient and physician education is needed so that patients know there may be dramatic consequences from missing only a few doses per month.

Not only may adherence have a major impact on patient outcome, but as one questioner from France pointed out at the end of the EHA patient advocacy session, “for a statistician it is a nightmare.” Poor adherence in clinical trials “means that the true effect of a drug is not well known. Efficacy may be under-estimated if adherence is low.”

More monitoring of adherence in clinical trials through the use of MEMS technology may, therefore, be necessary to ensure that clinical trial data shows the true efficacy and adverse event profile of a drug.

I hope that the European Hematology Association (EHA) will make a webcast of this informative patient advocacy session publicly available online as it raised issues of considerable importance to patients, physicians and biotech/pharma companies alike.

ResearchBlogging.orgMarin, D., Bazeos, A., Mahon, F., Eliasson, L., Milojkovic, D., Bua, M., Apperley, J., Szydlo, R., Desai, R., Kozlowski, K., Paliompeis, C., Latham, V., Foroni, L., Molimard, M., Reid, A., Rezvani, K., de Lavallade, H., Guallar, C., Goldman, J., & Khorashad, J. (2010). Adherence Is the Critical Factor for Achieving Molecular Responses in Patients With Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Who Achieve Complete Cytogenetic Responses on Imatinib Journal of Clinical Oncology, 28 (14), 2381-2388 DOI: 10.1200/JCO.2009.26.3087

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European Hematology Association (EHA) Congress London 2011At the 16th Congress of the European Hematology Association (EHA) that was held in London this past weekend, the educational sessions were extremely well attended.

The reason for this was the quality of the thought leaders who presented on science and emerging treatments.

The quality of the education sessions and the fact they are repeated twice, so you can avoid schedule clashes, is one of the things I particularly like about both the American Society of Hematology (ASH) and European Hematology Association (EHA) annual meetings.

As I have written before while at EAU in Vienna, I’m not a fan of promotional satellite symposia.  As an example on the Thursday before EHA, attendees interested in CML could attend the Novartis symposia in the morning about how nilotinib was better than imatinib, then in the afternoon attend the BMS sponsored symposia to hear how dasatinib was also better than imatinib.  Indeed, two of the speakers were identical in both symposia, but with entirely different messages.

Two other satellite symposia also had speakers talking about second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors.  What, of course, was on everyone’s mind was when to use one second-generation TKI over the other?  Also given that imatinib is reimbursed in many countries, while nilotinib and dasatinib are often not yet available in that setting, the issue of how to treat patients second-line with these therapies was also a hot topic.

However, just attending the individual company-sponsored symposia, to me, meant that it was hard to put together a big picture of exactly what to do when.  Perhaps a better way to handle it would have been to have one CML satellite symposia sponsored by all the companies with a dog in the race (Novartis, BMS, Ariad, Pfizer). We might have heard what the experts really thought that way. 🙂

The other issue that arose during the meeting is how data is presented when looking strategically at one treatment or trial to another in the same indication.  Are you truly comparing apples with oranges?

M Baccarani European Hematology Association Congress London 2011As Professor Michele Baccarani pointed out, there is a big difference between data that shows a cytogenetic or molecular response “BY” a certain time as compared to “AT” a certain time.

“BY” can include patients who had a response then went in remission, so could present a higher number than “AT” data that shows only those patients who have a response at that cut-off date.  This is an important distinction, for example, when comparing data from the BMS DASISION trial and Novartis ENESTnd trials to long-term survival data for imatinib versus interferon-alpha from the IRIS trial.

So, it was left to the EHA education symposia to provide some practical guidance.  In an excellent presentation, Hagop Kantarjian M.D. from MD Anderson provocatively presented his CML treatment guidelines, and discussed when you would use one drug over the other along with the importance of routine monitoring to evaluate how well a patient was doing on therapy.

Webcasts from the EHA education sessions will be available online soon and are well worth watching if you were unable to be in London this past weekend.

 

Launch of Zytiga (abiraterone acetate) at 2011 annual meeting of American Urological Association (AUA) in Washington DCThe market for prostate cancer therapies is set to expand from $1 billion currently to $5 billion by 2015, according to analysts reported by this morning’s Washington Post/Bloomberg news.  This is perhaps no surprise given the recent approval of abiraterone acetate (Zytiga®) from Ortho Biotech (JNJ).

New clinical data on prostate cancer clinical trial results is expected at the 2011 annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) in Chicago this weekend from many of the prostate cancer therapies in development such as MDV3100, TAK700, ARN-509, cabozantinib (XL184), ipilimumab, custirsen (OGX-11), BPX-101, alpharadin, denosumab (Xgeva®) and Prostvac-VF.

Indeed, one could argue that prostate cancer is becoming a competitive marketplace.  Any emerging biotechnology company that is not already developing a prostate cancer drug is likely to find it a hard market in which to create a blockbuster.  By the time any drug comes to market, there will be incumbents with effective products who have captured market share.

Prostate cancer is an exciting market to watch from a marketing strategy and patient perspective, as several companies potentially bring new products to market over the next few years.

However, the bottom line is that patients will live longer as a result of all the innovation that is taking place.  Not only that but physician education and awareness of how to treat this disease is also likely to improve as they seek out knowledge on new therapies and treatments.  This to many will make a major difference.  At the recent American Urological Association (AUA) annual meeting, the sessions on treatment of prostate cancer were standing room only.  There is clearly a demand for knowledge out there as the treatment paradigms change.

At the other end of the spectrum, there is also innovation taking place in terms of improved diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer.  Whether we should screen all men for PSA remains a controversial topic, although use of risk calculators do appear to offer less false positives.  Indeed, calculating risk is going to be one of the key areas that primary care physicians and urologists need to focus on, particularly in the light of the PIVOT trial data that was presented at AUA, showing radical prostatectomy (with risks including incontinence and erectile dysfunction) was not better than watchful waiting in low-risk, early stage disease.

However, a presentation I am looking forward to at ASCO 2011 is on circulating tumor cells (CTC) and whether these can be a prognostic or even a predictive biomarker.   Both the phase III MDV3100 and abiraterone acetate clinical trials captured CTC data.  It will be exciting news at ASCO 2011 if circulating tumor cells that require only a blood sample offer an improvement over PSA not only for detection of prostate cancer, but in monitoring the disease over time.

I will be at ASCO 2011 this weekend, and look forward to writing more on prostate cancer from the conference!

As many of you know, I previously wrote up on this blog the results from the Prostate Cancer Intervention versus Observation trial (PIVOT) that were presented during the plenary session at the recent American Urological Association (AUA) 2011 annual meeting.

Other science bloggers who were at the meeting also wrote about the presentation (see Scott Hensley’s excellent post on NPR’s health blog).

In fact anyone in the press room at AUA (I had a media pass as a science blogger) could have reviewed a copy of Dr Wilt’s presentation immediately afterwards and written about it.

However, what surprises me is that the data from this trial, which to many was the highlight of the AUA meeting and may be practice changing for urologists, has had relatively little or no pick-up by the mainstream news media.  The only reason I can think for this is due to the fact there is no abstract available, press release or other information for the media to use as reference.  Why is this?

As a scientist it makes no sense to me to present the results of a landmark study in the plenary session of a major scientific congress and not to share the data, especially when the data could have a major impact for men diagnosed with early prostate cancer and the practice of evidence based medicine.  Are urologists seriously supposed to rely on the notes they made from a rushed presentation or blog posts to guide them?

While it is common for abstracts to be delayed till the day of the presentation for groundbreaking or late-breaking research, there is no reason why an abstract with the main findings from the PIVOT trial should not have been released.

A cooperative study sponsored by government institutions such as the VA/NCI/AHRQ should be prepared to disseminate data, or else why present it at AUA?

Instead, the problem may be more due the fact that Dr Wilt, as Scott Hensley pointed out in his NPR blog post, has not submitted a manuscript of the data he presented at AUA for publication, so may be trying not to fall foul of the so-called “Ingelfinger rule” that medical journals insist upon.

This rule was named after the New England Journal of Medicine editor who established it.  In its simplicity, it states that data will not be accepted for publication if it has been published elsewhere.

However, with no disrespect to a full Professor of Medicine at a major medical school who has published numerous papers, it’s unfair to the scientific community to want to have your cake and eat it  i.e. have the glory of a plenary presentation without allowing the scientific community to use the data until you get round to writing a paper.  Clearly, it would have made more sense to have a manuscript in press before agreeing to present at the AUA plenary.

I am also troubled by the fact that what constitutes publication of the data does not include presentation at the plenary session of a major scientific congress.  If this isn’t publication, what is?  While technically a plenary presentation is not a peer-reviewed publication in the sense of having been through the rigors of a journal’s peer-review process (the value of which may not be as much as we believe), there is some implied peer review of scientific merit, or else why would it be given a plenary?

According to the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) policy on dissemination of information, it’s OK to make a presentation at a scientific meeting, but not to disseminate further information to the media or the press.  I’m sorry but this makes no sense to me.  In other words it appears it’s OK for Dr Wilt to present the data, but not share it, but if you were at the meeting you can report it.  However, if you were not at the meeting, then you can’t obtain a copy of what was presented?

You can read the tangled logic of the JAMA policy below, and each journal is slightly different in how it views this:

Presentation of research findings during, or publication of an abstract for, an open scientific or clinical meeting does not preclude consideration of the study for publication in JAMA.

News media reports based on coverage that occurs during the usual course of presentation of a scientific or clinical paper does not preempt a manuscript from consideration for publication.

However, authors presenting papers at such meetings are advised to refrain from providing additional information beyond that covered during the course of their presentation and exchange with meeting attendees.

Yet, here we have the results of a major 12 year study which for the first time establishes evidence based medicine on the use of radical prostatectomy in early stage prostate cancer patients, and nobody wants to share the data with the public?

In the light of the presentation that was made at the AUA plenary and the lack of any further information while we wait for Dr Wilt to submit a manuscript through the peer-review process of a major journal, which can take several months, I think it’s important for this data to be shared.

Since media reports of data presented at meetings appear to not to forego the opportunity of publishing the results, at least according to the JAMA policy, I hope that we will see further news reports about Dr Wilt’s AUA plenary presentation.

The results from the PIVOT study are important to scientists, urologists and men talking to their doctor about prostate cancer.  This data may help them better judge whether they should undertake watchful waiting or undergo radical prostatectomy surgery.  The data slides and Dr Wilt’s conclusions speak for themselves, as you can see in my earlier post.  I look forward to reading the full scientific paper when it is eventually published.

Update May 23, 2011

A webcast with audio and slides of Dr Wilt’s plenary presentation of the PIVOT data is now available on the AUA website.

 

It’s hard to believe that the countdown to the 2011 annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) is now underway, but yesterday at 6pm, the ASCO abstracts were released.

Oliver Sartor at the recent annual meeting of the American Urological Association (AUA) highlighted the prostate cancer potential of cabozantinib (XL184), an oral inhibitor of MET and VEGF kinases, so it was interesting to see that new data will be presented at ASCO.

What makes cabozantinib interesting?

The preliminary data shows that it not only has an anti-tumor effect, but also has an effect on bone metabolism.

The data presented at EORTC last year and at ASCO GU this year confirms what was seen in animal models, in that it had both an anti-metastatic effect on soft tissue and blockade of bone lesions.  Such dual action on both bone mets and the tumor microenvironment makes it an exciting new compound in prostate cancer.

By all accounts, the novel effect of cabozantinib on bone mets is unexpected.

At the forthcoming ASCO meeting, abstract 3010, whose lead author is Dr Michael Gordon of Pinnacle Oncology Hematology in Scottsdale, AZ  will present data on:

“Activity of cabozantinib (XL184) in soft tissue and bone: Results of a phase II randomized discontinuation trial (RDT) in patients (pts) with advanced solid tumors.”

According to Dr Gordon in the ASCO press teleconference yesterday, the phase II data at ASCO for cabozantinib in prostate cancer will show:

Complete or partial bone scan resolution in majority of patients (86%), often accompanied by pain relief

Unprecedented bone scan improvement

On the basis of these promising results, according to Dr Gordon, “Exelixis plans to initiate the first pivotal trial in prostate cancer by the end of 2011.

It will be interesting to see whether cabozantinib can impact overall survival (OS) in advanced prostate cancer, something that denosumab (Xgeva®) failed to show in the 147 trial that was just presented at AUA.

There are several abstracts on cabozantinib at the ASCO 2011 annual meeting. Another one that caught my attention was abstract 4516, whose lead author is Maha Hussein of the University of Michigan.

Dr Hussein will present data on cabozantinib in metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). The abstract’s conclusion is that:

Cabo showed clinical activity regardless of prior D in mCPRC pts, particularly in pts with bone disease, as reflected by high rates of b-scan resolution and pain relief, in addition to improvements in Hb and tumor regression.

I’ll be at ASCO in a few weeks time, so look forward to hearing more detail on the cabozantinib results.  The data is still very preliminary, but cabozantinib (XL184) is certainly a drug to watch, and may be an exciting new prostate cancer drug in the future.

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Data from the Prostate Cancer Intervention versus Observation Study (PIVOT) presented today in the plenary session of the 2011 annual meeting of American Urological Association (AUA) will have a major impact on the practice of Urology.

The VA/NCI/AHRQ cooperative study, initiated in 1994, was designed to assess the effect of radical prostatectomy (RP) compared to observation only or “watchful waiting” in men with localized prostate cancer.

What makes the PIVOT study so important is that it is the first randomized trial in the United States to look at RP versus “watchful waiting.”  In all, 13,022 men were screened at 52 US centers, from which 5023 men were deemed eligible.  Surprisingly, 4292 declined randomization and 731 men were enrolled in the trial.

The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality and the secondary endpoint, Prostate Cancer (PCa) mortality.  The two groups of patients were comparable between the observation and RP groups (mean age 66.8, 67.0 years); PSA Mean (10.2, 10.1), Gleason Score < 6 (70.1%, 69.8%).

Timothy Wilt (Minnesota) presented the results today at AUA 2011 (Abstract#407)

All-Cause Mortality

  • Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) between Observation & RP = 2.9%,
  • Hazard Ratio = 0.88 (95% 0.71-1.08), P=0.22

 

 

Prostate Cancer Mortality – all patients

  • AR = 2.7%  (95% CI -1.3 to 6.2)
  • Hazard Ratio=0.63 (95% CI 0.36-1.09), p=0.09

In other words looking at the groups as a whole there was no benefit of RP on survival.  Wilt presented further analysis on subgroups with low-risk local pathology, intermediate risk-local pathology and high risk PSA>10.

Only in the high-risk groups (PSA>10) was there a significant benefit to RP, in terms of lowering Prostate Cancer Mortality.

  • HR= 0.36 (0.15 to 0.89); p=0.03
  • ARR = 7.2% (0 to 14.8)

Wilt’s conclusion from the data was that compared to observation, RP produced

“reductions in all-cause and prostate cancer mortality that were not significant and less than 3% in absolute terms over 12 years.”

He added that:

“Surgery did not reduce mortality more than observation in men with low PSA or low risk from Prostate Cancer”

However, these “results suggest a benefit from surgery in men with higher PSA or higher risk of disease.”

The PIVOT trial provides evidence-based medicine results that will directly influence how urologists treat early stage prostate cancer.  Several urologists and others at AUA tweeted about the PIVOT data.  Using Storify, these provide some sentiments and perspective from practicing urologists in the live audience.

The conclusion from this data is that low risk, early stage prostate cancer patients should be observed by “watchful waiting” rather than undergo radical prostatectomy (RP).  This may have a financial impact on urologists who previously may have favored RP in low risk patients.

Update May 23, 2011

A webcast with audio and slides of Dr Wilt’s plenary presentation of the PIVOT data is now available on the AUA website.

Update March 6, 2012

Dr Wilt presented an update on the PIVOT trial at the 2012 European Association of Urology (EAU) Congress in Paris. You can read my blog post from the meeting:

PIVOT data continues to show no survival benefit for prostatectomy over watchful waiting in men with low to medium risk early prostate cancer.”

 Update July 18, 2012

The data from the PIVOT trial presented in the plenary sessions at AUA 2011 and EAU 2012 has finally been published online first (July 18, 2012) in The New England Journal of Medicine.NEJM PIVOT trial prostate cancer

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One of the sessions that I attended at the 2011 annual meeting of the American Urological Association (AUA) focused on research into advanced prostate cancer.  A particularly thought provoking presentation was:

Time trends of biochemical recurrence (BCR) following radical prostatectomy (RP) among 1574 BCR patients (Abstract #639)

Presented by Alex Haese from Hamburg, Germany, this paper was a retrospective analysis of 1,574 patients who had a biochemical recurrence (PSA > 0.2 mg/dl) following RP. Researchers looked at clinical progression and cancer specific survival rates and compared their findings to published United States data.

The results appeared to be somewhat depressing for European patients who experience a BCR, with a time to BCR of 1.8 years, compared to 2.1 years in the US research by Pound from Johns Hopkins and 2.4 years in the data published by Hull, at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC).

Once a BCR is experienced, the time to metastases is faster in Europe, 4.7 years in the research presented by Haese at AUA, as compared to 8 years in US research by Pound. Risk factors for metastasis free survival include time to BCR i.e.

“The longer the interval between RP and BCR, the greater the probability of being met-free.”

In other words delaying time to progression is associated with longer survival.

Following BCR, time to Prostate Cancer death was 6.0 years in the 1,574 European patients, compared to 13 years in the US Pound research.  Again, the data presented showed that,

“The longer the interval between RP and BCR, the greater the probability of being alive.”

This research must be put into context, as metastasis and death in BCR patients are rare (92% of the 1,574 patients with BCR were free of metastases at 5 years, 81% at 10 years).  However, for those patients who did progress, the results appear significantly different between the US and Europe.

What could explain this?

The presentation left this question unanswered, although in Q&A it was briefly touched upon. One person raised the question of whether differences in screening could be the difference in Europe vs. US?

Other questions that come to mind are whether the subject populations in the Hull and Pound data were comparable.  The German data also had more patients (1574) compared to 304 in the Pound research and 147 (Hull) raising the question that the larger sample size may be more accurate data?

Other factors that might possibly explain the difference include:

  • Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT)
  • Radiotherapy
  • Supportive care (eg bisphosphonates)

All of which tend to be more aggressively pursued as treatment options in the USA.

Overall, this presentation raised the interesting question of US/European differences in Prostate Cancer progression that hopefully will be answered by future research.

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